He Said What?

Sunday morning, fresh from a brief photo expedition in the neighborhood, I overheard one of the morning chinwag shows being watched by a couple of my associates. The oily senior senator from New York, Chuck Schumer was name-calling per usual. This time he oozed out a comparison he's been using lately which is, expressed arithmetically: GWB= Herbert Hoover.

This is beyond silly on many levels. First, as my younger associate pointed out, the majority of voters today don't know the difference between Herbert Hoover and William McKinley. Heck most voters today probably couldn't tell you if Hoover came before or after FDR. There is simply no traction to such an opaque, dated political argument. Schumer, of course, is too political an animal to even begin to get this.

Secondly, pretending that this economy in the current business cycle (that has created a record number of jobs, a record low unemployment rate, is yet to record even a single month of below zero growth, and is so strong it apparently can support a $3 Trillion federal budget that Schumer's party thinks is too small!) is the equal of the Great Depression is, um, hyperbole. There, that's a nice way to keep from saying, FREAKIN' INSANE.

And thirdly, if Chuck wants to talk about the causes of the Great Depression he could start with the actual precipitating event: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Has President Bush proposed anything like that? NO. Quite the opposite.

But Sen. Schumer has sponsored its modern day equivalent, a 27% tariff on imports from China. A move that would almost certainly start a worldwide trade war. And, by the way, another huge problem in the era you harken back to, Chuck, was the looming specter of tax increases. Seen anything like that lately Schm, er, Chuck? Oh yeah, just the largest tax increase in US history parked dead ahead.

I would say that Senator Schumer's performance Sunday morning, "was a little pitchy, dawg."

Or something like that.

Sunday Morning In The South

Around the neighborhood. Pear blossoms, Sunday morning, March 16, 2008.

11th Straight Victory

The San Jose Sharks took a 4 goal lead in the 1st period at HP Pavilion last night and went on to beat St. Louis 4-1. This was the 11th straight win for our beloved Sharks as they hit their stride just in time for the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Sharks now have the second best record in the NHL. They trail the Red Wings by 8 points for the best regular season record.

Good News, Bad News, Ya Know I've Had My Share

On the same day we read the glorious news of the Silver Star being awarded to 19 year old medic Spc. Monica Lin Brown we are brought low by the report that Jack Murtha will NOT be required to give a deposition in the military trial of Marine Lt. Col. Jefferey Chessani. Chessani was battalion commander of the 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment-- in charge of the group slandered by Fat Jack and TIME Magazine.

This is blood-boiling stuff. Take a deep breath and read it here. We hope for a good outcome for these Marines and a final comeuppance for scum of the Earth like Murtha, TIME and the terrorists to whom they give aid and comfort.

http://ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=290300289635579

Buybuybuy, no Sellsellsell... whatever

The Daily Options Report, right here on our bloggy network at adamsoptions.blogspot.com , points out the latest inane market stylings of one Jim Cramer. Cramer of course is the highly- rated carnival barker at CNBC who honks horns, screams, tears up when he thinks of his dear school chum EvilEl Spitzer, and otherwise leads people to think that the equities markets are actually a freakin' three ring circus populated by over-caffeinated chimpanzees.

According to The DOR, Thursday March 13th this snake-oil salesman peddled the following:

Longs: You're On Notice
Buying When We're Oversold Can Be Dicey By Jim CramerRealMoney.com Columnist3/13/2008 11:43 AM EDT

Shorts: You're On Notice
Shorts Don't Work in an Oversold MarketBy Jim CramerRealMoney.com Columnist3/13/2008 2:15 PM EDT

So, OK, that's news you can use, don't be long and don't be short. Hey, I went to cash on October 24, 2007 and haven't owned a stock in any account since, so I can agree. But then JC goes on his TV show and picks a bunch of stocks for people to buy!

Use this as yet another teaching moment: you should never, ever, have the sound up on the TV when people are telling you which stocks to buy... which is pretty much all day long on CNBC and FBN. Bloomberg too probably, I've never had the sound on with Bloomberg on my screen.

The great trader Jesse Livermore left behind many enduring ideas about how to make money in equity markets. There is nothing new in the markets-- the same things happen decade after decade. That's why the ability to read charts and understand the tape is essential. And, it's why what worked for Jesse a hundred years ago still works.

Among the ideas that Livermore left behind are these two:

-Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.

-Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was any easy money lying around, no one would force it into your pocket.

So, sometimes the best trading decision is "don't trade." It ain't easy to sit 100% in "cash" for 4 and a half months, but that's what I've been doing. It's a lot easier to NEVER LISTEN TO THE TV TIPSTERS once you make it a habit to just hit "MUTE." I never trade on a tip. And, I never give them out. I get asked all the time, "What should I buy?" I always try to change the subject. If you want me to pick stocks for you just give me your accounts to manage. Otherwise I won't play that game.

During the times in his life when Jesse Livermore was rich and he thought the market was correcting he would leave New York and take his yacht out for a ride. One of his favorite destinations was the American Southeast. I like to think the internet has allowed me to do Livermore one better--- I live in the Palmetto State year round, and never even have to set foot in the Northeast United States. Then again, I don't have a yacht. Thankfully, I don't want one either.

Prison Cell Blues

The champagne is iced down. OK, it's really Palmetto Porter, but who's checking. At 11:30 AM Evil El will, reportedly, be stepping down. Well, he actually can't step down since he started out lower than whale poop so let's rephrase that. He will resign. Allegedly.

Much is being made of how long it will take for Spit to exit the premises. Five days they say. I'll bet the industrial strength shredder won't be the first thing moved out of his office.

The other big topic is how Charlie Rangel's protege will be the new Guv. Good for him. And double good for Charlie who can't stand ElSpit. He used to call him, "the smartest guy in the world" with a sneer. So Rangel will own the Governorship of NY now like he owns ways and means. Except he doesn't have to listen to Pelosi when it comes to tellin' the new Guv what to do. The media also is pointing out, ad nauseum, that the incoming New York Governor is both black and blind. An associate pointed out this AM that he's just a guitar short of a blues act.

So, congratulations to Governor Jefferson. Now, where's that cham, er Palmetto Porter?

Day 2 for Client #9

It appears that Governor Spitzer didn't get caught in the investigation of a prostitution ring as it seemed yesterday afternoon.

Instead, the prostitution ring likely got caught in the investigation of Spitzer. Apparently the Guv of NY was suspected of laundering bribe money. In looking into that they found evidence that he was spending large sums of money on a high-priced money for sex operation.

Among the many questions--
-Was it his own money that he was throwing around?
-Was he taking bribes as suspected?
-If so were those payments made to stave off prosecution? Extortion anyone?
-Were the taxpayers of New York toting the note on some of his activities?
-Will Dick Grasso throw a party for all of the people who were attacked by Spitzer using his delightful prosecution through blackmail and intimidation tactics?
-What does his sock-puppet pal, James Cramer, the screamin' yahoo on CNBC, have to say about Evil El's fall from grace and into disgrace?

I've known a few egomaniacal narcissists in my working life. Let's just say Slimey Spitzer fits the profile perfectly. Note that in his statement Monday he apologizes for falling short of the Spitzer standard of conduct-- not the law.

He has always thought of himself as above the law. I assure you, he still does.

Number 9, Number 9, Number 9

From here it looks as though an egomaniacal narcissist is just one step away from going down the drain.

Wall Street cheered loudly but did NOT rally. Now that's a market determined to keep selling off.

Left: Client #9 talks to a constituent who is not his wife.

BOOM Goes Our Auto Business

While Michiganders moan about how horrible the economy is and Ohioans shriek that free trade is a bad thing we sometimes feel that we live in a completely different country. Every direction I drive I see construction here. Homes, businesses, a huge new school-- all of those things within a mile of our abode. Of course, the reply comes back from my former homeland, MichOhio, that their hardships are mainly because the US auto industry is in a horrible state. OK.

Well, building cars in our quarter of the nation is a booming business. In fact, the nearby BMW factory in Greer, SC hosted our Governor Mark Sanford just today to make a big announcement. Building cars in South Carolina and shipping them around the world is such a good business for BMW that they are expanding the state-of-the-art Greer facility to the tune of $750 Million. That expansion will require 500 additional direct hires. Of course those 500 jobs will be multiplied many times over in our Upstate economy.

There are lessons to be learned here but politicians like Granholm, Levin, Strickland and Sherrod Brown will never, ever learn them. Which means we'll need to keep building hereabouts as more and more people from the Northeast and Upper Midwest flee to our far greener pastures. Just so they learn to eat grits (properly) and pulled pork barbecue with slaw.

The local Greenville, SC paper reports here: http://greenvilleonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080310/BUSINESS/803100309

Clinton Machine Prepares To Launch Plan Z

I must admit, it's fun to watch so many Democrats upset with "The Clintons." (TM) The most amusing thing is when you read or hear them bemoaning the depths to which Hillary! (TM) has sunk. As a charter member of the VRWC I can assure you wooly-headed libs that she hasn't changed a bit. She's always been this loathsome. The only difference is that now your guy (BXO) is the one taking the incoming fire. If you think Obama is getting knocked around you weren't paying attention to the Clinton Machine's politics of personal destruction throughout the 90's.

There will be more to come. BXO made a mistake. Gov. Warner, Evan Bayh, Tom Vilsack all stepped aside. Richardson, Biden, Dodd all played their parts before dropping out. Even Johnny Edwards took his Silky Pony and went back to the Chapel Hill country estate.

Only Senator Obama made the mistake of taking on the machine and winning. He didn't know he was supposed to wait his turn.

Denver better be prepared.

Green Is Green Is Green

Albert Gore's hometown paper greets him this morning with a cheerful tale of how he exited guvmint with about $2 Million to his name and, after just 7 years heading the Church of Warmism, he is now worth over $100 Million. Hysterical demagoguery has been very, very good to ol' Al:

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080309/BUSINESS01/803090364

Sharks Update

When last we wrote about our Sharks they were mired in a slump and on the roadtrip from h-e-double hockey sticks. Things are very different now. With 8 straight wins the Sharks now have the third best record in the Western Conference. They are just a point behind Dallas and have two games-in-hand on the Stars.

So, what happened?

1. Chechoo is healthy and back in goal-scoring form. He now leads the team in goals.

2. Brian Campbell, brought over from Buffalo is making the defense tremendously better.

3. Patrick Marleau is wide awake, finally, and playing as the captain should... much speculation that he was hampered by trade rumors.

4. The guys that have been performing well all year, Joey, Nabby, and the rest haven't fallen off.

Things are looking good once again for a serious run for the Stanley Cup.

He Retired! For Real!

From the sporting world came news yesterday of a retirement. Sadness overcame many from coast-to-coast. The good news is that this brave champion who brought such joy to millions will be able to spend the rest of his productive life at stud. Well deserved, my friend.

What? No, not Favre! Uno, the world's greatest (male) beagle ever, is hangin' up the leash for a life of ease. With his good looks and charm the bit... er, the young beagle gals, will be chasin' him all over the kennel.

Carry on, Uno. Well done.

Divided We Stand

It looks pretty certain that, as of next fall, we will be living in "A House Divided." No, I don't mean McCain/ Obama divided. I mean something far more serious in The Palmetto State: USC/ Clemson. Gamecocks/ Tigers. Garnet/ Orange. That kinda divided.

It's serious stuff. I've lived in the middle of Ohio State/ Michigan, Longhorns/Sooners, Stanford/Cal, UCLA/Southern Cal. None of those rivalries compares, up close and personal, to the University of South Carolina v. Clemson University. Especially during football season.

With one young Dartlad already matriculating at Carolina the fact that the youngest Dartlad is choosing Clemson from among the bidders leaves us with one simple fact to face:

We will be "A House Divided."

As for me, I'll root for the Gamecocks during football season, the Tigers during basketball season, and both teams during baseball season. When they play each other on the diamond I'll root for the team ranked highest in the nation. That oughta work.

He coulda made this easier and gone to Wofford. Go Terriers!

Thanks for playing. Here's a lovely parting gift.

Huck, we hardly knew ye. Drive into the sunset brave Huck. A grateful nation salutes you.

"Yes, We Can!" Runs Into "Not So Fast"

The story line today is a variation on Hillary Rises From The Dead or Bloodbath To Come! It's important to remember a few things:

1. Because of proportional allocation of delegates the deck is stacked in Obama's favor now.

2. The media will promote Hillary now simply because it makes for a better story over a long summer.

3. Republicans will promote the "steel-cage death-match leading to blood in the streets in Denver" story.

4. Obama will likely win in Mississippi and Wyoming which come before the PA primary where Hillary will win but not make a big dent in his delegate lead.

5. Even Bubba and his bride know that finagling the nomination away from BXO (formerly the candidate known as BHO) will cause a chasm in the party not seen since 1964-68. It would blow apart the coalition upon which the Democrat Party has been built since 1965. Even if they don't care, others around them with future elections to ponder sure will.

The most likely Democrat nominee is still Barack X. Obama. His futures are trading at 70.3 this morning while hers are at 26.9. But the media, even the talk radio folks, will be pimpin' Hillary.

Fight Bobcats, Fight!

Sorta-But-Not-Quite Super Tuesday dawns and I see my alma mater is the scene for America's most-watched news channel's continuing coverage on their morning chit chat fest. Rufus lynx rufus, indeed. Good for the school, but not surprising since News Corp poobah Roger Ailes graduated from Ohio University in 1962. Quite a few years before me, I might add hastily. Many, many years. Too many years before me to even count. OK. 13.

It's an odd feeling for me these days as a life-long political junkie. Everybody is talking about this big, exciting battle and I don't care a bit. I suppose I want the HRC/BHO fight to continue all summer culminating in a bloody, nominee-wrecking, battle in Denver. I would definitely be for that if the other party were nominating a reliable fiscal conservative. But, they won't. So, I'm left with the steel-cage death-match between Clinton and Obama. yay.

It's like when the Super Bowl is played between two teams I can't stand. Except there aren't any new commercials in this contest-- as long as you don't count HRC's hideous "It's 3AM" ad. Or her even worse Christmas ad: "Now where did I put universal pre-K?"

I've never been one to use Barack Obama's middle name much. In fact I usually refer to him as BHO in the grand Demo tradition of FDR, JFK, LBJ. But I've received word through back channels that Michelle Obama has likened any use of her husband's middle name to fear-mongering hate-speech. (Which should make for an interesting swearing-in ceremony if he wins, by the way: "I, Barack Blank Obama do solemnly swear...") But, in answer to Michelle O's (like Jackie O, cool huh) sensitivity, from now on I'll try to refer to BHO as Barack X. Obama. Hope that helps.

Not To Trivialize or Anything, But...

These days when people talk about the sports world colliding with the real world they are usually talking about police blotter stuff or crazy congress critters holding hearings. But today my beloved Detroit Tigers have a real world issue on their hands. As the Marxist President Hugo Chavez threatens to advance Venezuelan troops into staunch US ally Colombia it causes a serious concern in Tigerland. The starting 3rd baseman, 1st baseman, and right fielder for Detroit, All-Stars each and every one, are Venezuelans. The starting shortstop is Colombian.

All we are saying, is give peace a chance.

Such A Monday

Sitting down in the office on a Monday morning and preparing for the trading day it's always good to review the weekend's events around the world.

-President Uribe of Colombia, a valuable US ally, successfully launched a strike against FARC killing leader "Raul Reyes" and 16 other terrorists. However, his neighboring Marxist dictators, Chavez of Venezuela and Correa of Ecuador took offense and moved troops and tanks to the Colombian border. If they roll into Colombia there is little doubt we will come to Uribe's aid. I would also expect Pelosi, Dodd, Kennedy et al to protest. They're kinda sweet on Chavez. Wonder how Obama will react? He'll "hope for change."

- The US fired three precision missiles into the lawless Somalia town of Dobley in an attempt to kill more than a couple al Qaeda terrorists.

- The usual battles with Islamofascists took place in Gaza, Afghanistan and Iraq as well.

- Following the big selloff in the US Friday markets around the world fell before our opening bell.

- Oil hit $103+/ bbl in early trade. For some time the mainstream press reported oil selling in the $80's as "an all-time high." Adjusted for inflation it certainly was not. But, at $103 it certainly is.

So. Just another Monday. I better have another cup of coffee.

UPDATE: Throw in a little domestic terrorism too.

A Map-Changing 2008?

Michael Barone is the most knowledgeable expert on voting patterns by congressional district in America today. Name a congressional district in any state in the USA and Barone can tell you the percentage of the vote by party, the current representative (and a few historical ones too), and several other things about that district's electorate. That's why it's interesting when Michael writes a column called "Throw Out The Maps in 2008." http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/throw_out_the_maps_in_2008.html

It's his belief that the electoral vote this November may fall along much different lines than the 2000/2004 elections. I have been a believer, since McCain and Obama became the likely nominees about a month ago, that this could be a re-alignment election. On the R side you have a candidate who made his name by opposing his own party in ways and language he would never use against the opposition. His problems with the base are, for many voters, irreconcilable. On the D side you have a candidate who took on the Clinton machine and beat it soundly, not because of his positions, but just through soaring, albeit empty, rhetoric. Throw in the respective ages/ energy of the two nominees and you have a prescription for a blowout in favor of the "Hope and change! Yes, We can!" guy.

But, I'm not a believer that it will look radically different than 2000/ 2004 as long as it is essentially a 2 man race. With no Perot mucking things up I forecast around a 50-48-2 split in the popular vote. But in the electoral college I think Obama will win handily. He'll hold all of the Kerry 2004 states with the possible exception of New Hampshire. McCain will, on the other hand, lose the following states that GWB won in 2004: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Colorado. Furthermore, Obama has a good chance of also adding Missouri, Nevada and Virginia to his column.

I wish this was not the case. I wish that the Republican Party had nominated a solid economic conservative. They didn't. Since they didn't, I suspect BHO will be the next POTUS.

Finally, unlike 2000 & 2004 Florida and Ohio will not be battleground/ swing states. McCain will carry Florida easily due mainly to the retiree vote and secondarily to overwhelming support from the Cuban-American voters. Ohio will go with Obama by a comfortable margin as the state of my birth falls deeper into the Michigan failure model.